Two Factions at the ICE Protests
EXCLUSIVE — A REVIEW OF ARRESTS AND POLITICAL AFFILIATIONS AT THE PORTLAND ICE PROTESTS IN 2025 SHOWS SHARP PATTERNS IN BEHAVIOR BY IDEOLOGY.
Left vs. right arrests at portland ice
THE ARREST RECORDS ARE NOT BALANCED. MOST PEOPLE ARRESTED AT THE PROTESTS THIS YEAR WERE ALIGNED WITH THE POLITICAL LEFT, AND THEY WERE SIGNIFICANTLY YOUNGER, WITH MANY IN THEIR EARLY TO MID-TWENTIES. RIGHT-ALIGNED ARRESTS WERE FAR LESS FREQUENT AND TENDED TO INVOLVE PEOPLE IN THEIR LATE THIRTIES, USUALLY FOR LOWER-LEVEL MISDEMEANORS.
Violent and serious charges
THE SEVERITY OF THE CHARGES ALSO SKEWS LEFT. THE MOST SERIOUS CRIMES IN THE DATASET I REVIEWED ORIGINATE WITH LEFT-ALIGNED PROTESTERS, INCLUDING ARSON, ROBBERY, RECKLESS BURNING, ASSAULTING OFFICERS, ATTEMPTED ASSAULTS ON OFFICERS, AND A SERIES OF CASES INVOLVING RESISTING OR INTERFERING WITH POLICE DURING CHAOTIC CONFRONTATIONS. LEFT-ALIGNED DEFENDANTS WERE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO FACE STACKED CHARGES, WITH MANY CASES INCLUDING FOUR OR MORE OFFENSES. RIGHT-ALIGNED DEFENDANTS WERE MORE OFTEN BOOKED ON A SINGLE COUNT OR A LESSER OFFENSE SUCH AS HARASSMENT.
PUBLIC POLICE AND CITY DATA REVIEWED HIGHLIGHTS THREE MAJOR TRENDS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN REPORTED:
— A LEFT-IDENTIFIED PERSON IS 4.75 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO BE ARRESTED AT THE PROTESTS.
— A LEFT-IDENTIFIED PERSON IS 5 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE A VIOLENT CHARGE.
— A LEFT-IDENTIFIED PERSON IS 7 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE A SERIOUS CHARGE.
THE TIMELINE REINFORCES THIS IMBALANCE. IN JUNE, ALMOST EVERY ARREST INVOLVED A LEFT-ALIGNED PROTESTER, AND THOSE CASES INCLUDE MOST OF THE VIOLENCE DIRECTED AT OFFICERS. NO RIGHT-ALIGNED COUNTER-PROTESTER APPEARS IN THE RECORDS UNTIL OCTOBER 2, WHEN NICK SORTOR WAS BOOKED ON DISORDERLY CONDUCT, A CHARGE THAT WAS LATER DROPPED. THERE WERE NO ARRESTS AT ALL IN JULY AND AUGUST. RESIDENTS SAY THAT DURING THIS LULL, THE CITY EFFECTIVELY LEFT THEM TO DEAL WITH THE NOISE, PROPERTY DAMAGE, AND REPEATED LATE-NIGHT DISRUPTIONS ON THEIR OWN.
RIGHT-ALIGNED “PATRIOT” GROUPS BEGAN APPEARING IN SEPTEMBER. POLICE MONITORING AND ARRESTS RESUMED, BUT THE UNDERLYING PATTERN DID NOT CHANGE: THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR, LEFT-ALIGNED PROTESTERS WERE STILL MORE LIKELY TO BE THE ONES ENGAGED IN RISKY, ILLEGAL, OR VIOLENT BEHAVIOR ON THE GROUND AND MORE LIKELY TO FACE SERIOUS CRIMINAL CHARGES.
ANOTHER DIVIDE EMERGES IN THE DATA AROUND LIVESTREAMING, A CONSTANT SOURCE OF FRICTION ON THE SCENE. NEARLY 60% OF RIGHT-ALIGNED ARRESTS INVOLVED INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE FILMING OR COMMENTATING ON EVENTS ONLINE. THESE WERE PEOPLE STAGING VERBAL CONFRONTATIONS FOR THE CAMERA, AND THEIR ARRESTS TYPICALLY GREW OUT OF THOSE DISPUTES, OFTEN ON ESCALATIONS TOWARDS HARASSMENT-TYPE CHARGES. NONE OF THE LEFT-ALIGNED ARRESTS WERE LIVESTREAMERS. INSTEAD THEIR ARRESTS CAME FROM PHYSICAL ACTIONS ON THE GROUND, SUCH AS CROSSING BARRIERS, INTERFERING WITH OFFICERS, DAMAGING PROPERTY, OR ESCALATING INTO FIGHTS.
TAKEN TOGETHER, THIS REVIEW OF THE DATA POINTS LESS TO SIMPLE PARTY IDENTITY AND MORE TO A DIFFERENCE IN PROTEST STYLE. LEFT-ALIGNED ACTIVISTS DOMINATED THE STREET PRESENCE FOR MOST OF THE YEAR AND USED MORE CONFRONTATIONAL TACTICS, INCLUDING PUSHING INTO RESTRICTED AREAS, DISMANTLING FENCING, SETTING FIRES, AND PHYSICALLY CHALLENGING OFFICERS OR FEDERAL PROPERTY. THEIR ACTIONS FOCUSED ON AUDACITY AND DIRECT CONFRONTATION, WHICH CARRIED A HIGHER RISK OF SERIOUS CHARGES. RIGHT-ALIGNED GROUPS ARRIVED LATER, IN SMALLER NUMBERS, AND TENDED TO AVOID PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SUSTAINED CLASHES WITH POLICE, RELYING INSTEAD ON TROLLING, LIVESTREAMING, AND VERBAL RIDICULE.
THE IMBALANCE IN ARRESTS APPEARS TO MIRROR THIS SPLIT IN GROUND BEHAVIOR.
ONE SIDE TRIED TO CONTROL THE NARRATIVE FROM A CAMERA, WHILE THE OTHER THREW ITSELF INTO PHYSICAL CONFRONTATION — AND THE LEGAL OUTCOMES FOLLOWED.